Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–0 Vihar Slavyanovo

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

FT

1 – 0

Vihar Slavyanovo

4/22/2023

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 24Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa65%

×Draw20%

Vihar Slavyanovo15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaExpected goals in this matchVihar Slavyanovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.92

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

2.12

Vihar Slavyanovo

0.92

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 130% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 95 away

3.09

creates per match

1.33

0.51

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

3.09

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.33

allows per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

0.51

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ↓

Vihar Slavyanovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw

85%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Vihar Slavyanovo

80%

Draw or Vihar Slavyanovo

35%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+

41%

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals

88%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals

62%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals

35%

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals

60%

Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals

23%

Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)

81%

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.51 · 45 matches

Vihar Slavyanovo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 3.09 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.12

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 1.33 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more

65%

level

20%

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more

15%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff