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Vihar Slavyanovo vs Etar VT II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Etar VT II
Etar VT II
11/2/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 9Stadion Slavyanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo69%
×Draw19%
Etar VT II12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihar Slavyanovo
2.21
Etar VT II
0.81

Vihar Slavyanovo creates 173% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 85 away

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
2.08
Etar VT II
0.85

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
0.77
Etar VT II
2.35

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par
Etar VT II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Etar VT II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw
88%
Vihar Slavyanovo or Etar VT II
81%
Draw or Etar VT II
31%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
45%
Etar VT II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
89%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
65%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
38%
Etar VT II 1+ goals
56%
Etar VT II 2+ goals
19%
Etar VT II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
85%
Etar VT II (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Etar VT II away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.35 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Etar VT II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.21

Etar VT II attack 0.85 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
69%
level
19%
Etar VT II scores more
12%

Vihar Slavyanovo at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Vihar Slavyanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Vihar Slavyanovo 3–0 Etar VT II

Vihar Slavyanovo beat Etar VT II 3-0 in Third League - Northwest on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Slavyanovo in Slavyanovo.