Etar VT II 3–1 Vihar Slavyanovo: Result & Stats

Etar VT II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vihar Slavyanovo

3/3/2024

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 17Stadion Ivailo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Etar VT II38%

×Draw24%

Vihar Slavyanovo38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etar VT IIExpected goals in this matchVihar Slavyanovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.54

Etar VT II

1.52

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 95 away

1.89

creates per match

1.33

1.75

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Etar VT II

1.89

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.33

allows per match

Etar VT II

1.75

Vihar Slavyanovo

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etar VT II+0.00on par

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar VT II ↓

Vihar Slavyanovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Etar VT II or draw

62%

Etar VT II or Vihar Slavyanovo

76%

Draw or Vihar Slavyanovo

62%

Winning margin

Etar VT II wins by 2+

18%

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Etar VT II 1+ goals

78%

Etar VT II 2+ goals

45%

Etar VT II 3+ goals

20%

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals

79%

Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals

45%

Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Etar VT II (draw refunded)

49%

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar VT II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.75 · 83 matches

Vihar Slavyanovo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar VT II attack 1.89 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 1.33 + Etar VT II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Etar VT II scores more

38%

level

24%

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more

38%

Etar VT II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Etar VT II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff