Vihar Slavyanovo 0–1 Drenovets: Result & Stats

Vihar Slavyanovo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Drenovets

10/21/2023

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 11Stadion Slavyanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo72%

×Draw17%

Drenovets11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vihar SlavyanovoExpected goals in this matchDrenovets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

0.77

Vihar Slavyanovo

2.32

Drenovets

0.77

Vihar Slavyanovo creates 201% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 68 away

2.08

creates per match

0.76

0.77

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo

2.08

Drenovets

0.76

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo

0.77

Drenovets

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Drenovets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw

89%

Vihar Slavyanovo or Drenovets

83%

Draw or Drenovets

28%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+

48%

Drenovets wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals

90%

Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals

67%

Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals

40%

Drenovets 1+ goals

54%

Drenovets 2+ goals

18%

Drenovets 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)

87%

Drenovets (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.32

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more

72%

level

17%

Drenovets scores more

11%

Vihar Slavyanovo at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Vihar Slavyanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff