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Drenovets vs Vihar Slavyanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Drenovets
Drenovets
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
5/21/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 32Stadion Drenovets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Drenovets40%
×Draw24%
Vihar Slavyanovo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Drenovets
1.55
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 95 away

creates per match

Drenovets
1.96
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.33

allows per match

Drenovets
1.61
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.15

finishing

Drenovets+0.00on par
Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drenovets ↓

Vihar Slavyanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Drenovets or draw
64%
Drenovets or Vihar Slavyanovo
76%
Draw or Vihar Slavyanovo
60%

Winning margin

Drenovets wins by 2+
19%
Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Drenovets 1+ goals
79%
Drenovets 2+ goals
46%
Drenovets 3+ goals
20%
Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
77%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
43%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Drenovets (draw refunded)
52%
Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drenovets at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.61 · 67 matches

Vihar Slavyanovo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drenovets attack 1.96 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.55

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 1.33 + Drenovets defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Drenovets scores more
40%
level
24%
Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
36%

Drenovets at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Drenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Drenovets 1–2 Vihar Slavyanovo

Vihar Slavyanovo beat Drenovets 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Drenovets in Drenovets.