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Vihar Slavyanovo vs Botev Vratsa II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
4/9/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 25Stadion Slavyanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Vihar Slavyanovo60%
×Draw22%
Botev Vratsa II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vihar Slavyanovo
1.95
Botev Vratsa II
0.96

Vihar Slavyanovo creates 103% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 61 away

creates per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
2.08
Botev Vratsa II
1.16

allows per match

Vihar Slavyanovo
0.77
Botev Vratsa II
1.82

finishing

Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vihar Slavyanovo ↓

Botev Vratsa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vihar Slavyanovo or draw
82%
Vihar Slavyanovo or Botev Vratsa II
78%
Draw or Botev Vratsa II
40%

Winning margin

Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
36%
Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
86%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
58%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
31%
Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
62%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
25%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
77%
Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vihar Slavyanovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Botev Vratsa II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 2.08 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.95

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.16 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
60%
level
22%
Botev Vratsa II scores more
18%

Vihar Slavyanovo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Vihar Slavyanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Vihar Slavyanovo 3–0 Botev Vratsa II

Vihar Slavyanovo beat Botev Vratsa II 3-0 in Third League - Northwest on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Slavyanovo in Slavyanovo.