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Botev Vratsa II vs Vihar Slavyanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vihar Slavyanovo
Vihar Slavyanovo
8/12/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 1Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Botev Vratsa II36%
×Draw25%
Vihar Slavyanovo39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa II
1.38
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 95 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.61
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.33

allows per match

Botev Vratsa II
1.58
Vihar Slavyanovo
1.15

finishing

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par
Vihar Slavyanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa II ↓

Vihar Slavyanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa II or draw
61%
Botev Vratsa II or Vihar Slavyanovo
75%
Draw or Vihar Slavyanovo
64%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
16%
Vihar Slavyanovo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
75%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
40%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
16%
Vihar Slavyanovo 1+ goals
77%
Vihar Slavyanovo 2+ goals
43%
Vihar Slavyanovo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
48%
Vihar Slavyanovo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa II at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

Vihar Slavyanovo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.61 + Vihar Slavyanovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vihar Slavyanovo attack 1.33 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Botev Vratsa II scores more
36%
level
25%
Vihar Slavyanovo scores more
39%

Vihar Slavyanovo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vihar Slavyanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Vratsa II vs Vihar Slavyanovo

Vihar Slavyanovo beat Botev Vratsa II 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Lukovit.