Viggbyholms IK 1–1 Karlberg: Result & Stats

Viggbyholms IK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Karlberg

4/7/2023

Division 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 2Vikingavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Viggbyholms IK34%

×Draw24%

Karlberg41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viggbyholms IKExpected goals in this matchKarlberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.59

Viggbyholms IK

1.43

Karlberg

1.59

Karlberg creates 11% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 48 away

1.83

creates per match

1.88

1.30

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Viggbyholms IK

1.83

Karlberg

1.88

allows per match

Viggbyholms IK

1.30

Karlberg

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viggbyholms IK+0.00on par

Karlberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viggbyholms IK ↓

Karlberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Viggbyholms IK or draw

59%

Viggbyholms IK or Karlberg

76%

Draw or Karlberg

66%

Winning margin

Viggbyholms IK wins by 2+

16%

Karlberg wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Viggbyholms IK 1+ goals

76%

Viggbyholms IK 2+ goals

42%

Viggbyholms IK 3+ goals

17%

Karlberg 1+ goals

80%

Karlberg 2+ goals

47%

Karlberg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Viggbyholms IK (draw refunded)

45%

Karlberg (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viggbyholms IK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

Karlberg away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.02 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viggbyholms IK attack 1.83 + Karlberg defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.43

Karlberg attack 1.88 + Viggbyholms IK defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Viggbyholms IK scores more

34%

level

24%

Karlberg scores more

41%

Karlberg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Karlberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff