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Karlberg vs Viggbyholms IK — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Karlberg
Karlberg
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Viggbyholms IK
Viggbyholms IK
9/6/2023Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 14Stadshagens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Karlberg57%
×Draw20%
Viggbyholms IK23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlberg
2.25
Viggbyholms IK
1.36

Karlberg creates 65% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 46 away

creates per match

Karlberg
2.79
Viggbyholms IK
1.63

allows per match

Karlberg
1.10
Viggbyholms IK
1.70

finishing

Karlberg+0.00on par
Viggbyholms IK+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlberg ↓

Viggbyholms IK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Karlberg or draw
77%
Karlberg or Viggbyholms IK
80%
Draw or Viggbyholms IK
43%

Winning margin

Karlberg wins by 2+
35%
Viggbyholms IK wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Karlberg 1+ goals
89%
Karlberg 2+ goals
65%
Karlberg 3+ goals
39%
Viggbyholms IK 1+ goals
74%
Viggbyholms IK 2+ goals
39%
Viggbyholms IK 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Karlberg (draw refunded)
72%
Viggbyholms IK (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlberg at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Viggbyholms IK away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.70 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlberg attack 2.79 + Viggbyholms IK defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.25

Viggbyholms IK attack 1.63 + Karlberg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Karlberg scores more
57%
level
20%
Viggbyholms IK scores more
23%

Karlberg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Karlberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: Karlberg 4–1 Viggbyholms IK

Karlberg beat Viggbyholms IK 4-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on September 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadshagens IP in Stockholm.