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Vigør vs Staal Jørpeland — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Vigør
Vigør
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Staal Jørpeland
Staal Jørpeland
5/16/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 7Macron Arena Hellemyr kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vigør27%
×Draw19%
Staal Jørpeland54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vigør
1.89
Staal Jørpeland
2.66

Staal Jørpeland creates 41% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vigør
1.08
Staal Jørpeland
1.69

allows per match

Vigør
3.62
Staal Jørpeland
2.69

finishing

Vigør+0.00on par
Staal Jørpeland+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vigør ↓

Staal Jørpeland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Vigør or draw
46%
Vigør or Staal Jørpeland
81%
Draw or Staal Jørpeland
73%

Winning margin

Vigør wins by 2+
14%
Staal Jørpeland wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Vigør 1+ goals
85%
Vigør 2+ goals
56%
Vigør 3+ goals
29%
Staal Jørpeland 1+ goals
93%
Staal Jørpeland 2+ goals
74%
Staal Jørpeland 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Vigør (draw refunded)
34%
Staal Jørpeland (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vigør at home — creates 1.08, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

Staal Jørpeland away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vigør attack 1.08 + Staal Jørpeland defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 1.89

Staal Jørpeland attack 1.69 + Vigør defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vigør scores more
27%
level
19%
Staal Jørpeland scores more
54%

Staal Jørpeland at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Staal Jørpeland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Vigør 2–1 Staal Jørpeland

Vigør beat Staal Jørpeland 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on May 16, 2024.

The match was played at Macron Arena Hellemyr kunstgress in Kristiansand.