Staal Jørpeland 4–1 Vigør: Result & Stats

Staal Jørpeland

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vigør

9/21/2024

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 22Jørpeland stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Staal Jørpeland77%

×Draw13%

Vigør10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Staal JørpelandExpected goals in this matchVigør

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.39

1.23

Staal Jørpeland

3.39

Vigør

1.23

Staal Jørpeland creates 176% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.62

creates per match

0.77

1.69

allows per match

4.15

creates per match

Staal Jørpeland

2.62

Vigør

0.77

allows per match

Staal Jørpeland

1.69

Vigør

4.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Staal Jørpeland+0.00on par

Vigør+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staal Jørpeland ↓

Vigør →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Staal Jørpeland or draw

90%

Staal Jørpeland or Vigør

87%

Draw or Vigør

23%

Winning margin

Staal Jørpeland wins by 2+

59%

Vigør wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Staal Jørpeland 1+ goals

96%

Staal Jørpeland 2+ goals

84%

Staal Jørpeland 3+ goals

64%

Vigør 1+ goals

71%

Vigør 2+ goals

35%

Vigør 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Staal Jørpeland (draw refunded)

88%

Vigør (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staal Jørpeland at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Vigør away — creates 0.77, concedes 4.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staal Jørpeland attack 2.62 + Vigør defence 4.15 → ÷2 → 3.39

Vigør attack 0.77 + Staal Jørpeland defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Staal Jørpeland scores more

77%

level

13%

Vigør scores more

10%

Staal Jørpeland at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Staal Jørpeland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff