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VIFK vs OLS — Ykkönen 2018

VIFK
VIFK
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
OLS
OLS
8/24/2024YkkönenYkkönen · Round 21Lemonsoft Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VIFK27%
×Draw22%
OLS51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VIFK
1.35
OLS
1.93

OLS creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 34 away

creates per match

VIFK
1.15
OLS
1.62

allows per match

VIFK
2.23
OLS
1.56

finishing

VIFK+0.00on par
OLS+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VIFK ↓

OLS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

VIFK or draw
49%
VIFK or OLS
78%
Draw or OLS
73%

Winning margin

VIFK wins by 2+
12%
OLS wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

VIFK 1+ goals
74%
VIFK 2+ goals
39%
VIFK 3+ goals
15%
OLS 1+ goals
85%
OLS 2+ goals
57%
OLS 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

VIFK (draw refunded)
35%
OLS (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VIFK at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

OLS away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VIFK attack 1.15 + OLS defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

OLS attack 1.62 + VIFK defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

VIFK scores more
27%
level
22%
OLS scores more
51%

OLS at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "OLS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VIFK 2 – 3 OLS

OLS beat VIFK 3-2 in Ykkönen on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Lemonsoft Stadion in Vaasa.