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OLS vs VIFK — Ykkönen 2018

OLS
OLS
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
VIFK
VIFK
7/3/2024YkkönenYkkönen · Round 10Raatin stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

OLS59%
×Draw19%
VIFK22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OLS
2.47
VIFK
1.48

OLS creates 67% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 14 away

creates per match

OLS
2.51
VIFK
1.64

allows per match

OLS
1.31
VIFK
2.43

finishing

OLS+0.00on par
VIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OLS ↓

VIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

OLS or draw
78%
OLS or VIFK
81%
Draw or VIFK
41%

Winning margin

OLS wins by 2+
38%
VIFK wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

OLS 1+ goals
91%
OLS 2+ goals
70%
OLS 3+ goals
44%
VIFK 1+ goals
77%
VIFK 2+ goals
43%
VIFK 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

OLS (draw refunded)
73%
VIFK (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OLS at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

VIFK away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OLS attack 2.51 + VIFK defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.47

VIFK attack 1.64 + OLS defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

OLS scores more
59%
level
19%
VIFK scores more
22%

OLS at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "OLS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OLS 2 – 2 VIFK

OLS and VIFK drew 2-2 in Ykkönen on July 3, 2024.

The match was played at Raatin stadion in Oulu.