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Viettel vs Binh Dinh — V.League 1 2019

Viettel
Viettel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Binh Dinh
Binh Dinh
5/13/2024V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 18Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Viettel45%
×Draw27%
Binh Dinh28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viettel
1.35
Binh Dinh
1.01

Viettel creates 34% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 54 away

creates per match

Viettel
1.46
Binh Dinh
1.17

allows per match

Viettel
0.86
Binh Dinh
1.24

finishing

Viettel+0.00on par
Binh Dinh+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viettel ↓

Binh Dinh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Viettel or draw
72%
Viettel or Binh Dinh
73%
Draw or Binh Dinh
55%

Winning margin

Viettel wins by 2+
21%
Binh Dinh wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Viettel 1+ goals
74%
Viettel 2+ goals
39%
Viettel 3+ goals
15%
Binh Dinh 1+ goals
64%
Binh Dinh 2+ goals
27%
Binh Dinh 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Viettel (draw refunded)
61%
Binh Dinh (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viettel at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.86 · 90 matches

Binh Dinh away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.24 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viettel attack 1.46 + Binh Dinh defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Binh Dinh attack 1.17 + Viettel defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Viettel scores more
45%
level
27%
Binh Dinh scores more
28%

Viettel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Viettel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viettel vs Binh Dinh

Viettel and Binh Dinh drew 1-1 in V.League 1 on May 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Hàng Đẫy in Hanoi.