Viettel 1–0 Binh Dinh: Result & Stats | Cup

Viettel

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Binh Dinh

8/16/2023

Cup · Semi-finalsSân vận động Hàng Đẫy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Viettel81%

×Draw14%

Binh Dinh5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ViettelExpected goals in this matchBinh Dinh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.41

Viettel

2.38

Binh Dinh

0.41

Viettel creates 480% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

2.25

creates per match

0.25

0.58

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Viettel

2.25

Binh Dinh

0.25

allows per match

Viettel

0.58

Binh Dinh

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viettel+0.00on par

Binh Dinh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viettel ↓

Binh Dinh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Viettel or draw

95%

Viettel or Binh Dinh

86%

Draw or Binh Dinh

19%

Winning margin

Viettel wins by 2+

58%

Binh Dinh wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Viettel 1+ goals

91%

Viettel 2+ goals

68%

Viettel 3+ goals

42%

Binh Dinh 1+ goals

34%

Binh Dinh 2+ goals

6%

Binh Dinh 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Viettel (draw refunded)

94%

Binh Dinh (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viettel at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Binh Dinh away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viettel attack 2.25 + Binh Dinh defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

Binh Dinh attack 0.25 + Viettel defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Viettel scores more

81%

level

14%

Binh Dinh scores more

5%

Viettel at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Viettel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff