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Vietnam vs Iraq — Friendlies 2026

Vietnam
Vietnam
CANC
00:00
Iraq
Iraq
3/25/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Sân vận động quốc gia Mỹ Đình (My Dinh National Stadium) (Hà Nội (Hanoi))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vietnam50%
×Draw28%
Iraq22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vietnam
1.35
Iraq
0.78

Vietnam creates 73% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Vietnam
1.77
Iraq
0.79

allows per match

Vietnam
0.77
Iraq
0.93

finishing

Vietnam+0.00on par
Iraq+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vietnam ↓

Iraq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vietnam or draw
78%
Vietnam or Iraq
72%
Draw or Iraq
50%

Winning margin

Vietnam wins by 2+
24%
Iraq wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vietnam 1+ goals
74%
Vietnam 2+ goals
39%
Vietnam 3+ goals
15%
Iraq 1+ goals
54%
Iraq 2+ goals
18%
Iraq 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vietnam (draw refunded)
70%
Iraq (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vietnam at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Iraq away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vietnam attack 1.77 + Iraq defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.35

Iraq attack 0.79 + Vietnam defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vietnam scores more
50%
level
28%
Iraq scores more
22%

Vietnam at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vietnam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vietnam face Iraq (Friendlies)

Friendlies returns with Vietnam hosting Iraq. Match starts March 25, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vietnam host Iraq at Sân vận động quốc gia Mỹ Đình (My Dinh National Stadium) (Hà Nội (Hanoi)).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.