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Iraq vs Vietnam — Asian Cup 2019

Iraq
Iraq
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vietnam
Vietnam
1/24/2024Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 3Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Iraq56%
×Draw18%
Vietnam26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iraq
2.92
Vietnam
2.00

Iraq creates 46% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Iraq
2.50
Vietnam
2.00

allows per match

Iraq
2.00
Vietnam
3.33

finishing

Iraq+0.00on par
Vietnam+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iraq ↓

Vietnam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Iraq or draw
74%
Iraq or Vietnam
82%
Draw or Vietnam
44%

Winning margin

Iraq wins by 2+
37%
Vietnam wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Iraq 1+ goals
94%
Iraq 2+ goals
78%
Iraq 3+ goals
55%
Vietnam 1+ goals
86%
Vietnam 2+ goals
59%
Vietnam 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Iraq (draw refunded)
68%
Vietnam (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iraq at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Vietnam away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iraq attack 2.50 + Vietnam defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.92

Vietnam attack 2.00 + Iraq defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Iraq scores more
56%
level
18%
Vietnam scores more
26%

Iraq at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Iraq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraq 3 – 2 Vietnam

Iraq beat Vietnam 3-2 in Asian Cup on January 24, 2024.

The match was played at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha.