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Vídir vs Kári — 2. Deild 2026

Vídir
Vídir
FT
3 – 1
Kári
Kári
B. Gudnason 77', 27'
E. Osmani 21'
J. Akason 60'
10/6/20202. Deild2. Deild · Round 17Nesfisk-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vídir48%
×Draw21%
Kári30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vídir
2.08
Kári
1.62

Vídir creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 21 away

creates per match

Vídir
1.67
Kári
1.57

allows per match

Vídir
1.67
Kári
2.48

finishing

Vídir+0.00on par
Kári+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vídir ↓

Kári →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Vídir or draw
70%
Vídir or Kári
79%
Draw or Kári
52%

Winning margin

Vídir wins by 2+
28%
Kári wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vídir 1+ goals
87%
Vídir 2+ goals
61%
Vídir 3+ goals
34%
Kári 1+ goals
80%
Kári 2+ goals
48%
Kári 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Vídir (draw refunded)
61%
Kári (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vídir at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Kári away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vídir attack 1.67 + Kári defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.08

Kári attack 1.57 + Vídir defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vídir scores more
48%
level
21%
Kári scores more
30%

Vídir at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vídir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
E. Osmani
27'
B. Gudnason
60'
J. Akason
77'
B. Gudnason

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vídir 3 – 1 Kári

Vídir beat Kári 3-1 in 2. Deild on October 6, 2020.

Goals: E. Osmani (21'), B. Gudnason (27', 77'), J. Akason (60').

The match was played at Nesfisk-völlurinn in Garður.