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Kári vs Vídir — 2. Deild 2026

Kári
Kári
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vídir
Vídir
6/4/20252. Deild2. Deild · Round 6Akraneshöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kári42%
×Draw21%
Vídir37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kári
2.01
Vídir
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

creates per match

Kári
1.85
Vídir
1.50

allows per match

Kári
2.30
Vídir
2.17

finishing

Kári+0.00on par
Vídir+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kári ↓

Vídir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kári or draw
63%
Kári or Vídir
79%
Draw or Vídir
58%

Winning margin

Kári wins by 2+
23%
Vídir wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kári 1+ goals
87%
Kári 2+ goals
59%
Kári 3+ goals
32%
Vídir 1+ goals
85%
Vídir 2+ goals
56%
Vídir 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kári (draw refunded)
53%
Vídir (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kári at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

Vídir away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kári attack 1.85 + Vídir defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.01

Vídir attack 1.50 + Kári defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kári scores more
42%
level
21%
Vídir scores more
37%

Kári at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kári will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Kári 2–1 Vídir

Kári beat Vídir 2-1 in 2. Deild on June 4, 2025.

The match was played at Akraneshöllin in Akranes.