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Vídir vs Haukar — 2. Deild 2026

Vídir
Vídir
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Haukar
Haukar
H. Jonsson 88'
Unknown 30'
O. Gudmundsson 89'
A. Tomasson 86'
Unknown 41', 31'
7/11/20252. Deild2. Deild · Round 12Nesfisk-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vídir38%
×Draw23%
Haukar39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vídir
1.65
Haukar
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 25 away

creates per match

Vídir
1.67
Haukar
1.68

allows per match

Vídir
1.67
Haukar
1.64

finishing

Vídir+0.00on par
Haukar+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vídir ↓

Haukar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vídir or draw
61%
Vídir or Haukar
77%
Draw or Haukar
62%

Winning margin

Vídir wins by 2+
19%
Haukar wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vídir 1+ goals
81%
Vídir 2+ goals
49%
Vídir 3+ goals
23%
Haukar 1+ goals
81%
Haukar 2+ goals
50%
Haukar 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Vídir (draw refunded)
49%
Haukar (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vídir at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Haukar away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vídir attack 1.67 + Haukar defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.65

Haukar attack 1.68 + Vídir defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vídir scores more
38%
level
23%
Haukar scores more
39%

Haukar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Haukar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
31'
41'
86'
A. Tomasson
88'
H. Jonsson
89'
O. Gudmundsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Vídir 2–4 Haukar

Haukar beat Vídir 4-2 in 2. Deild on July 11, 2025.

Goals: ? (30', 31', 41'), A. Tomasson (86'), H. Jonsson (88'), O. Gudmundsson (89').

The match was played at Nesfisk-völlurinn in Garður.