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Haukar vs Vídir — 2. Deild 2026

Haukar
Haukar
FT
6 – 1
Vídir
Vídir
K. Jonsson 84'
N. D. Djuric 78'
T. Asgeirsson 68', 60'
S. Markusson 64'
O. Gislason 15'
B. Gudnason 22'
9/27/20202. Deild2. Deild · Round 19Gaman Ferða völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Haukar53%
×Draw20%
Vídir27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haukar
2.35
Vídir
1.66

Haukar creates 42% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 17 away

creates per match

Haukar
2.17
Vídir
1.35

allows per match

Haukar
1.96
Vídir
2.53

finishing

Haukar+0.00on par
Vídir+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haukar ↓

Vídir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Haukar or draw
73%
Haukar or Vídir
80%
Draw or Vídir
47%

Winning margin

Haukar wins by 2+
33%
Vídir wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Haukar 1+ goals
90%
Haukar 2+ goals
68%
Haukar 3+ goals
41%
Vídir 1+ goals
81%
Vídir 2+ goals
49%
Vídir 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Haukar (draw refunded)
66%
Vídir (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haukar at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.96 · 24 matches

Vídir away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haukar attack 2.17 + Vídir defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.35

Vídir attack 1.35 + Haukar defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Haukar scores more
53%
level
20%
Vídir scores more
27%

Haukar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Haukar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
O. Gislason
22'
B. Gudnason
60'
T. Asgeirsson
64'
S. Markusson
68'
T. Asgeirsson
78'
N. D. Djuric
84'
K. Jonsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Haukar 6–1 Vídir

Haukar beat Vídir 6-1 in 2. Deild on September 27, 2020.

Goals: O. Gislason (15'), B. Gudnason (22'), T. Asgeirsson (60', 68'), S. Markusson (64'), N. D. Djuric (78'), K. Jonsson (84').

The match was played at Gaman Ferða völlurinn in Hafnarfjörður.