Videoton II 0–0 MTK Budapest II: Result & Stats

Videoton II

FT

0 – 0

MTK Budapest II

3/24/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 21MOL Aréna Sóstó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Videoton II43%

×Draw24%

MTK Budapest II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Videoton IIExpected goals in this matchMTK Budapest II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.41

Videoton II

1.64

MTK Budapest II

1.41

Videoton II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 45 away

1.36

creates per match

1.36

1.46

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Videoton II

1.36

MTK Budapest II

1.36

allows per match

Videoton II

1.46

MTK Budapest II

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Videoton II+0.00on par

MTK Budapest II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Videoton II ↓

MTK Budapest II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Videoton II or draw

67%

Videoton II or MTK Budapest II

76%

Draw or MTK Budapest II

57%

Winning margin

Videoton II wins by 2+

22%

MTK Budapest II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Videoton II 1+ goals

81%

Videoton II 2+ goals

49%

Videoton II 3+ goals

23%

MTK Budapest II 1+ goals

76%

MTK Budapest II 2+ goals

41%

MTK Budapest II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Videoton II (draw refunded)

57%

MTK Budapest II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Videoton II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.46 · 81 matches

MTK Budapest II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Videoton II attack 1.36 + MTK Budapest II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.64

MTK Budapest II attack 1.36 + Videoton II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Videoton II scores more

43%

level

24%

MTK Budapest II scores more

33%

Videoton II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Videoton II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff