MTK Budapest II 1–1 Videoton II: Result & Stats

MTK Budapest II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Videoton II

9/3/2023

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 6Sándor Károly Labdarúgó Akadémia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

MTK Budapest II56%

×Draw22%

Videoton II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MTK Budapest IIExpected goals in this matchVideoton II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.11

MTK Budapest II

1.93

Videoton II

1.11

MTK Budapest II creates 74% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 82 away

2.22

creates per match

1.10

1.13

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

MTK Budapest II

2.22

Videoton II

1.10

allows per match

MTK Budapest II

1.13

Videoton II

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MTK Budapest II+0.00on par

Videoton II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MTK Budapest II ↓

Videoton II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

MTK Budapest II or draw

78%

MTK Budapest II or Videoton II

78%

Draw or Videoton II

44%

Winning margin

MTK Budapest II wins by 2+

33%

Videoton II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

MTK Budapest II 1+ goals

85%

MTK Budapest II 2+ goals

57%

MTK Budapest II 3+ goals

30%

Videoton II 1+ goals

67%

Videoton II 2+ goals

30%

Videoton II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

MTK Budapest II (draw refunded)

72%

Videoton II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MTK Budapest II at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Videoton II away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MTK Budapest II attack 2.22 + Videoton II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.93

Videoton II attack 1.10 + MTK Budapest II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

MTK Budapest II scores more

56%

level

22%

Videoton II scores more

22%

MTK Budapest II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "MTK Budapest II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff