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Videoton II vs Kaposvar — NB III - Southwest 2019

Videoton II
Videoton II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kaposvar
Kaposvar
5/19/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 29MOL Aréna Sóstó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Videoton II27%
×Draw24%
Kaposvar49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Videoton II
1.19
Kaposvar
1.68

Kaposvar creates 41% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 83 away

creates per match

Videoton II
1.36
Kaposvar
1.90

allows per match

Videoton II
1.46
Kaposvar
1.01

finishing

Videoton II+0.00on par
Kaposvar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Videoton II ↓

Kaposvar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Videoton II or draw
51%
Videoton II or Kaposvar
76%
Draw or Kaposvar
73%

Winning margin

Videoton II wins by 2+
11%
Kaposvar wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Videoton II 1+ goals
70%
Videoton II 2+ goals
33%
Videoton II 3+ goals
12%
Kaposvar 1+ goals
81%
Kaposvar 2+ goals
50%
Kaposvar 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Videoton II (draw refunded)
36%
Kaposvar (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Videoton II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.46 · 81 matches

Kaposvar away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.01 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Videoton II attack 1.36 + Kaposvar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Kaposvar attack 1.90 + Videoton II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Videoton II scores more
27%
level
24%
Kaposvar scores more
49%

Kaposvar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kaposvar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Videoton II vs Kaposvar

Kaposvar beat Videoton II 2-0 in NB III - Southwest on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at MOL Aréna Sóstó in Székesfehérvár.