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Kaposvar vs Videoton II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Kaposvar
Kaposvar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Videoton II
Videoton II
11/5/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 14Rákóczi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Kaposvar50%
×Draw24%
Videoton II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaposvar
1.73
Videoton II
1.17

Kaposvar creates 48% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 82 away

creates per match

Kaposvar
1.83
Videoton II
1.10

allows per match

Kaposvar
1.23
Videoton II
1.63

finishing

Kaposvar+0.00on par
Videoton II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaposvar ↓

Videoton II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kaposvar or draw
74%
Kaposvar or Videoton II
76%
Draw or Videoton II
50%

Winning margin

Kaposvar wins by 2+
27%
Videoton II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kaposvar 1+ goals
82%
Kaposvar 2+ goals
52%
Kaposvar 3+ goals
25%
Videoton II 1+ goals
69%
Videoton II 2+ goals
33%
Videoton II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kaposvar (draw refunded)
66%
Videoton II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaposvar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 83 matches

Videoton II away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaposvar attack 1.83 + Videoton II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Videoton II attack 1.10 + Kaposvar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kaposvar scores more
50%
level
24%
Videoton II scores more
26%

Kaposvar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kaposvar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaposvar vs Videoton II

Kaposvar beat Videoton II 3-0 in NB III - Southwest on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Rákóczi Stadion in Kaposvár.