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Videoton II vs Érdi VSE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Videoton II
Videoton II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Érdi VSE
Érdi VSE
5/15/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 36MOL Aréna Sóstó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Videoton II38%
×Draw25%
Érdi VSE37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Videoton II
1.47
Érdi VSE
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 96 away

creates per match

Videoton II
1.36
Érdi VSE
1.40

allows per match

Videoton II
1.46
Érdi VSE
1.57

finishing

Videoton II+0.00on par
Érdi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Videoton II ↓

Érdi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Videoton II or draw
63%
Videoton II or Érdi VSE
75%
Draw or Érdi VSE
62%

Winning margin

Videoton II wins by 2+
18%
Érdi VSE wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Videoton II 1+ goals
77%
Videoton II 2+ goals
43%
Videoton II 3+ goals
18%
Érdi VSE 1+ goals
76%
Érdi VSE 2+ goals
42%
Érdi VSE 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Videoton II (draw refunded)
51%
Érdi VSE (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Videoton II at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.46 · 81 matches

Érdi VSE away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.57 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Videoton II attack 1.36 + Érdi VSE defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Érdi VSE attack 1.40 + Videoton II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Videoton II scores more
38%
level
25%
Érdi VSE scores more
37%

Videoton II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Videoton II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Videoton II 2–0 Érdi VSE

Videoton II beat Érdi VSE 2-0 in NB III - Southwest on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at MOL Aréna Sóstó in Székesfehérvár.