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Érdi VSE vs Videoton II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Érdi VSE
Érdi VSE
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Videoton II
Videoton II
7/30/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 1Érdi Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Érdi VSE47%
×Draw25%
Videoton II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Érdi VSE
1.61
Videoton II
1.19

Érdi VSE creates 35% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 82 away

creates per match

Érdi VSE
1.60
Videoton II
1.10

allows per match

Érdi VSE
1.27
Videoton II
1.63

finishing

Érdi VSE+0.00on par
Videoton II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Érdi VSE ↓

Videoton II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Érdi VSE or draw
72%
Érdi VSE or Videoton II
75%
Draw or Videoton II
53%

Winning margin

Érdi VSE wins by 2+
24%
Videoton II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Érdi VSE 1+ goals
80%
Érdi VSE 2+ goals
48%
Érdi VSE 3+ goals
22%
Videoton II 1+ goals
70%
Videoton II 2+ goals
33%
Videoton II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Érdi VSE (draw refunded)
63%
Videoton II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Érdi VSE at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.27 · 97 matches

Videoton II away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Érdi VSE attack 1.60 + Videoton II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Videoton II attack 1.10 + Érdi VSE defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Érdi VSE scores more
47%
level
25%
Videoton II scores more
28%

Érdi VSE at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Érdi VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Érdi VSE 2–1 Videoton II

Érdi VSE beat Videoton II 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Érdi Sporttelep in Érd.