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Vidar vs Hinna — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Vidar
Vidar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hinna
Hinna
K. Ismaili 89'
S. Haughom 14'
M. D. Valvatne 59'
9/11/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 20Logitrans banen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vidar74%
×Draw14%
Hinna12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vidar
3.34
Hinna
1.34

Vidar creates 149% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vidar
4.46
Hinna
1.77

allows per match

Vidar
0.92
Hinna
2.23

finishing

Vidar+0.00on par
Hinna+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vidar ↓

Hinna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Vidar or draw
88%
Vidar or Hinna
86%
Draw or Hinna
26%

Winning margin

Vidar wins by 2+
56%
Hinna wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vidar 1+ goals
96%
Vidar 2+ goals
84%
Vidar 3+ goals
63%
Hinna 1+ goals
74%
Hinna 2+ goals
39%
Hinna 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vidar (draw refunded)
86%
Hinna (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vidar at home — creates 4.46, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Hinna away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vidar attack 4.46 + Hinna defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 3.34

Hinna attack 1.77 + Vidar defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Vidar scores more
74%
level
14%
Hinna scores more
12%

Vidar at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Vidar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
S. Haughom
59'
M. D. Valvatne
89'
K. Ismaili

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Vidar 2–1 Hinna

Vidar beat Hinna 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 11, 2025.

Goals: S. Haughom (14'), M. D. Valvatne (59'), K. Ismaili (89').

The match was played at Logitrans banen in Stavanger.