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Hinna vs Vidar — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Hinna
Hinna
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Vidar
Vidar
A. Sebulonsen 81'
K. Pereira 63'
S. Haughom 53', 45' (pen)
7/28/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 13Hinna Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hinna40%
×Draw19%
Vidar41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hinna
2.34
Vidar
2.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hinna
3.00
Vidar
2.92

allows per match

Hinna
1.85
Vidar
1.69

finishing

Hinna+0.00on par
Vidar+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hinna ↓

Vidar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Hinna or draw
59%
Hinna or Vidar
81%
Draw or Vidar
60%

Winning margin

Hinna wins by 2+
23%
Vidar wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Hinna 1+ goals
90%
Hinna 2+ goals
67%
Hinna 3+ goals
41%
Vidar 1+ goals
91%
Vidar 2+ goals
68%
Vidar 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Hinna (draw refunded)
49%
Vidar (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hinna at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Vidar away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hinna attack 3.00 + Vidar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.34

Vidar attack 2.92 + Hinna defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hinna scores more
40%
level
19%
Vidar scores more
41%

Vidar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vidar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
S. HaughomPenalty
53'
S. Haughom
63'
K. Pereira
81'
A. Sebulonsen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hinna vs Vidar

Vidar beat Hinna 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on July 28, 2025.

Goals: S. Haughom (45' pen, 53'), K. Pereira (63'), A. Sebulonsen (81').

The match was played at Hinna Stadion in Stavanger.