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Victoriano Arenas vs Dock Sud — Primera C 2026

Victoriano Arenas
Victoriano Arenas
CANC
00:00
Dock Sud
Dock Sud
4/11/2020Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 13Estadio Saturnino Moure

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Victoriano Arenas34%
×Draw29%
Dock Sud37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoriano Arenas
1.08
Dock Sud
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 67 away

creates per match

Victoriano Arenas
1.08
Dock Sud
1.18

allows per match

Victoriano Arenas
1.07
Dock Sud
1.09

finishing

Victoriano Arenas+0.00on par
Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoriano Arenas ↓

Dock Sud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Victoriano Arenas or draw
63%
Victoriano Arenas or Dock Sud
71%
Draw or Dock Sud
66%

Winning margin

Victoriano Arenas wins by 2+
14%
Dock Sud wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Victoriano Arenas 1+ goals
66%
Victoriano Arenas 2+ goals
29%
Victoriano Arenas 3+ goals
10%
Dock Sud 1+ goals
68%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
31%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Victoriano Arenas (draw refunded)
48%
Dock Sud (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoriano Arenas at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.07 · 135 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoriano Arenas attack 1.08 + Dock Sud defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Dock Sud attack 1.18 + Victoriano Arenas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Victoriano Arenas scores more
34%
level
29%
Dock Sud scores more
37%

Dock Sud at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoriano Arenas face Dock Sud (Primera C)

Primera C returns with Victoriano Arenas hosting Dock Sud. Match starts April 11, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Victoriano Arenas host Dock Sud at Estadio Saturnino Moure.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.