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Dock Sud vs Victoriano Arenas — Primera C 2026

Dock Sud
Dock Sud
FT
1 – 0
Victoriano Arenas
Victoriano Arenas
F. Motta 63'
8/22/2021Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 6Estadio de los Inmigrantes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Dock Sud51%
×Draw28%
Victoriano Arenas22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dock Sud
1.39
Victoriano Arenas
0.80

Dock Sud creates 74% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 136 away

creates per match

Dock Sud
1.21
Victoriano Arenas
0.84

allows per match

Dock Sud
0.76
Victoriano Arenas
1.56

finishing

Dock Sud+0.00on par
Victoriano Arenas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dock Sud ↓

Victoriano Arenas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dock Sud or draw
78%
Dock Sud or Victoriano Arenas
72%
Draw or Victoriano Arenas
49%

Winning margin

Dock Sud wins by 2+
25%
Victoriano Arenas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dock Sud 1+ goals
75%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
40%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
16%
Victoriano Arenas 1+ goals
55%
Victoriano Arenas 2+ goals
19%
Victoriano Arenas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dock Sud (draw refunded)
70%
Victoriano Arenas (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dock Sud at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.76 · 80 matches

Victoriano Arenas away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.56 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dock Sud attack 1.21 + Victoriano Arenas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Victoriano Arenas attack 0.84 + Dock Sud defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dock Sud scores more
51%
level
28%
Victoriano Arenas scores more
22%

Dock Sud at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dock Sud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
F. Motta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Dock Sud 1–0 Victoriano Arenas

Dock Sud beat Victoriano Arenas 1-0 in Primera C on August 22, 2021.

Goals: F. Motta (63').

The match was played at Estadio de los Inmigrantes in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.