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Victoriano Arenas vs Central Ballester — Primera C 2026

Victoriano Arenas
Victoriano Arenas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Central Ballester
Central Ballester
8/3/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 5Estadio Saturnino Moure

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Victoriano Arenas42%
×Draw29%
Central Ballester30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoriano Arenas
1.23
Central Ballester
0.99

Victoriano Arenas creates 24% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 48 away

creates per match

Victoriano Arenas
1.08
Central Ballester
0.88

allows per match

Victoriano Arenas
1.09
Central Ballester
1.38

finishing

Victoriano Arenas+0.00on par
Central Ballester+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoriano Arenas ↓

Central Ballester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Victoriano Arenas or draw
70%
Victoriano Arenas or Central Ballester
71%
Draw or Central Ballester
58%

Winning margin

Victoriano Arenas wins by 2+
18%
Central Ballester wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Victoriano Arenas 1+ goals
71%
Victoriano Arenas 2+ goals
35%
Victoriano Arenas 3+ goals
13%
Central Ballester 1+ goals
63%
Central Ballester 2+ goals
26%
Central Ballester 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Victoriano Arenas (draw refunded)
58%
Central Ballester (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoriano Arenas at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 137 matches

Central Ballester away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoriano Arenas attack 1.08 + Central Ballester defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Central Ballester attack 0.88 + Victoriano Arenas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Victoriano Arenas scores more
42%
level
29%
Central Ballester scores more
30%

Victoriano Arenas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Victoriano Arenas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoriano Arenas vs Central Ballester

Victoriano Arenas and Central Ballester drew 1-1 in Primera C on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Saturnino Moure in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.