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Central Ballester vs Victoriano Arenas — Primera C 2026

Central Ballester
Central Ballester
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Victoriano Arenas
Victoriano Arenas
7/27/2025Primera CPrimera C · Round 19Predio Cacique

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Central Ballester43%
×Draw29%
Victoriano Arenas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Ballester
1.22
Victoriano Arenas
0.91

Central Ballester creates 34% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 136 away

creates per match

Central Ballester
0.88
Victoriano Arenas
0.84

allows per match

Central Ballester
0.98
Victoriano Arenas
1.56

finishing

Central Ballester+0.00on par
Victoriano Arenas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Ballester ↓

Victoriano Arenas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Central Ballester or draw
72%
Central Ballester or Victoriano Arenas
71%
Draw or Victoriano Arenas
57%

Winning margin

Central Ballester wins by 2+
19%
Victoriano Arenas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Central Ballester 1+ goals
70%
Central Ballester 2+ goals
34%
Central Ballester 3+ goals
12%
Victoriano Arenas 1+ goals
60%
Victoriano Arenas 2+ goals
23%
Victoriano Arenas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Central Ballester (draw refunded)
61%
Victoriano Arenas (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Ballester at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Victoriano Arenas away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.56 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Ballester attack 0.88 + Victoriano Arenas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.22

Victoriano Arenas attack 0.84 + Central Ballester defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Central Ballester scores more
43%
level
29%
Victoriano Arenas scores more
28%

Central Ballester at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Central Ballester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Ballester vs Victoriano Arenas

Central Ballester and Victoriano Arenas drew 2-2 in Primera C on July 27, 2025.

The match was played at Predio Cacique.