Victoria United 4–0 Leopard de Douala

Victoria United

FT

4 – 0

Leopard de Douala

12/21/2022

Elite Two · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Victoria United68%

×Draw21%

Leopard de Douala11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Victoria UnitedExpected goals in this matchLeopard de Douala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.57

Victoria United

1.83

Leopard de Douala

0.57

Victoria United creates 221% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 28 away

1.83

creates per match

0.64

0.50

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Victoria United

1.83

Leopard de Douala

0.64

allows per match

Victoria United

0.50

Leopard de Douala

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par

Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

Leopard de Douala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw

89%

Victoria United or Leopard de Douala

79%

Draw or Leopard de Douala

32%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+

41%

Leopard de Douala wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals

84%

Victoria United 2+ goals

54%

Victoria United 3+ goals

28%

Leopard de Douala 1+ goals

43%

Leopard de Douala 2+ goals

11%

Leopard de Douala 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)

86%

Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Leopard de Douala away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.83 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.83

Leopard de Douala attack 0.64 + Victoria United defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Victoria United scores more

68%

level

21%

Leopard de Douala scores more

11%

Victoria United at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff