Leopard de Douala 1–1 Victoria United

Leopard de Douala

FT

1 – 1

Victoria United

3/4/2023

Elite Two · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Leopard de Douala28%

×Draw29%

Victoria United43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leopard de DoualaExpected goals in this matchVictoria United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.23

Leopard de Douala

0.93

Victoria United

1.23

Victoria United creates 32% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 12 away

1.10

creates per match

1.17

1.28

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Leopard de Douala

1.10

Victoria United

1.17

allows per match

Leopard de Douala

1.28

Victoria United

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Victoria United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leopard de Douala ↓

Victoria United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Leopard de Douala or draw

57%

Leopard de Douala or Victoria United

71%

Draw or Victoria United

72%

Winning margin

Leopard de Douala wins by 2+

10%

Victoria United wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Leopard de Douala 1+ goals

61%

Leopard de Douala 2+ goals

24%

Leopard de Douala 3+ goals

7%

Victoria United 1+ goals

71%

Victoria United 2+ goals

35%

Victoria United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)

39%

Victoria United (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leopard de Douala at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Victoria United away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leopard de Douala attack 1.10 + Victoria United defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.93

Victoria United attack 1.17 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Leopard de Douala scores more

28%

level

29%

Victoria United scores more

43%

Victoria United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff