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Victoria United vs Avion Academy — Elite One 2019

Victoria United
Victoria United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
2/18/2024Elite OneElite One · Round 14Limbe Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Victoria United46%
×Draw26%
Avion Academy28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria United
1.46
Avion Academy
1.09

Victoria United creates 34% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 67 away

creates per match

Victoria United
1.67
Avion Academy
0.82

allows per match

Victoria United
1.36
Avion Academy
1.25

finishing

Victoria United+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria United ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Victoria United or draw
72%
Victoria United or Avion Academy
74%
Draw or Avion Academy
54%

Winning margin

Victoria United wins by 2+
22%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Victoria United 1+ goals
77%
Victoria United 2+ goals
43%
Victoria United 3+ goals
18%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
66%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
30%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Victoria United (draw refunded)
62%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria United attack 1.67 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + Victoria United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Victoria United scores more
46%
level
26%
Avion Academy scores more
28%

Victoria United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Victoria United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Victoria United 1–1 Avion Academy

Victoria United and Avion Academy drew 1-1 in Elite One on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium in Limbe.