Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Avion Academy vs Victoria United — Elite One 2019

Avion Academy
Avion Academy
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Victoria United
Victoria United
11/5/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 6Stade de la Réunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Avion Academy43%
×Draw27%
Victoria United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avion Academy
1.38
Victoria United
1.11

Avion Academy creates 24% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 40 away

creates per match

Avion Academy
1.06
Victoria United
1.20

allows per match

Avion Academy
1.03
Victoria United
1.70

finishing

Avion Academy+0.00on par
Victoria United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avion Academy ↓

Victoria United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Avion Academy or draw
70%
Avion Academy or Victoria United
73%
Draw or Victoria United
57%

Winning margin

Avion Academy wins by 2+
20%
Victoria United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Avion Academy 1+ goals
75%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
40%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
16%
Victoria United 1+ goals
67%
Victoria United 2+ goals
30%
Victoria United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Avion Academy (draw refunded)
59%
Victoria United (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avion Academy at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.03 · 63 matches

Victoria United away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avion Academy attack 1.06 + Victoria United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.38

Victoria United attack 1.20 + Avion Academy defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Avion Academy scores more
43%
level
27%
Victoria United scores more
30%

Avion Academy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Avion Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Avion Academy 2–2 Victoria United

Avion Academy and Victoria United drew 2-2 in Elite One on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Réunification in Douala.