Victoria Sulejówek 3–1 Sokół Aleksandrów

Victoria Sulejówek

FT

3 – 1

Sokół Aleksandrów

5/10/2025

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Victoria Sulejówek47%

×Draw25%

Sokół Aleksandrów29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Victoria SulejówekExpected goals in this matchSokół Aleksandrów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.19

Victoria Sulejówek

1.59

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.19

Victoria Sulejówek creates 34% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

1.47

creates per match

1.13

1.24

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Victoria Sulejówek

1.47

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.13

allows per match

Victoria Sulejówek

1.24

Sokół Aleksandrów

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria Sulejówek+0.00on par

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Sulejówek ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Victoria Sulejówek or draw

71%

Victoria Sulejówek or Sokół Aleksandrów

75%

Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów

53%

Winning margin

Victoria Sulejówek wins by 2+

24%

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Victoria Sulejówek 1+ goals

80%

Victoria Sulejówek 2+ goals

47%

Victoria Sulejówek 3+ goals

21%

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals

70%

Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals

33%

Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Victoria Sulejówek (draw refunded)

62%

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Sulejówek at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Sulejówek attack 1.47 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Victoria Sulejówek defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Victoria Sulejówek scores more

47%

level

25%

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more

29%

Victoria Sulejówek at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Victoria Sulejówek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff