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Sokół Aleksandrów vs Victoria Sulejówek — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Victoria Sulejówek
Victoria Sulejówek
10/12/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów40%
×Draw25%
Victoria Sulejówek35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50
Victoria Sulejówek
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.08
Victoria Sulejówek
1.26

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50
Victoria Sulejówek
1.91

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par
Victoria Sulejówek+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Victoria Sulejówek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw
65%
Sokół Aleksandrów or Victoria Sulejówek
75%
Draw or Victoria Sulejówek
60%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
19%
Victoria Sulejówek wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
78%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
44%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
19%
Victoria Sulejówek 1+ goals
75%
Victoria Sulejówek 2+ goals
40%
Victoria Sulejówek 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
54%
Victoria Sulejówek (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Victoria Sulejówek away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Victoria Sulejówek defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.50

Victoria Sulejówek attack 1.26 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
40%
level
25%
Victoria Sulejówek scores more
35%

Sokół Aleksandrów at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sokół Aleksandrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Aleksandrów vs Victoria Sulejówek

Victoria Sulejówek beat Sokół Aleksandrów 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka in Aleksandrów Łódzki.