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Victoria Sulejówek vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Victoria Sulejówek
Victoria Sulejówek
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
8/19/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Victoria Sulejówek31%
×Draw24%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Sulejówek
1.38
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.69

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Victoria Sulejówek
1.47
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.14

allows per match

Victoria Sulejówek
1.24
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.29

finishing

Victoria Sulejówek+0.00on par
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Sulejówek ↓

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Victoria Sulejówek or draw
55%
Victoria Sulejówek or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
76%
Draw or Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
69%

Winning margin

Victoria Sulejówek wins by 2+
14%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Victoria Sulejówek 1+ goals
75%
Victoria Sulejówek 2+ goals
40%
Victoria Sulejówek 3+ goals
16%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
82%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
50%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Victoria Sulejówek (draw refunded)
41%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Sulejówek at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Sulejówek attack 1.47 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.14 + Victoria Sulejówek defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Victoria Sulejówek scores more
31%
level
24%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
45%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Victoria Sulejówek 1–1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Victoria Sulejówek and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Sulejówek.