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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Victoria Sulejówek — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Victoria Sulejówek
Victoria Sulejówek
3/9/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki66%
×Draw19%
Victoria Sulejówek16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.33
Victoria Sulejówek
1.04

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 124% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.75
Victoria Sulejówek
1.26

allows per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.81
Victoria Sulejówek
1.91

finishing

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par
Victoria Sulejówek+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓

Victoria Sulejówek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw
84%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Victoria Sulejówek
81%
Draw or Victoria Sulejówek
34%

Winning margin

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
43%
Victoria Sulejówek wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
90%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
67%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
41%
Victoria Sulejówek 1+ goals
65%
Victoria Sulejówek 2+ goals
28%
Victoria Sulejówek 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
81%
Victoria Sulejówek (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.81 · 52 matches

Victoria Sulejówek away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 2.75 + Victoria Sulejówek defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.33

Victoria Sulejówek attack 1.26 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more
66%
level
19%
Victoria Sulejówek scores more
16%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2–0 Victoria Sulejówek

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki beat Victoria Sulejówek 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Grodzisk Mazowiecki.