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Victoria Sulejówek vs Mławianka Mława — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Victoria Sulejówek
Victoria Sulejówek
FT
1 – 1
Mławianka Mława
Mławianka Mława
11/10/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Victoria Sulejówek46%
×Draw24%
Mławianka Mława30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Sulejówek
1.71
Mławianka Mława
1.35

Victoria Sulejówek creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Victoria Sulejówek
1.47
Mławianka Mława
1.46

allows per match

Victoria Sulejówek
1.24
Mławianka Mława
1.94

finishing

Victoria Sulejówek+0.00on par
Mławianka Mława+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Sulejówek ↓

Mławianka Mława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Victoria Sulejówek or draw
70%
Victoria Sulejówek or Mławianka Mława
76%
Draw or Mławianka Mława
54%

Winning margin

Victoria Sulejówek wins by 2+
24%
Mławianka Mława wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Victoria Sulejówek 1+ goals
82%
Victoria Sulejówek 2+ goals
51%
Victoria Sulejówek 3+ goals
24%
Mławianka Mława 1+ goals
74%
Mławianka Mława 2+ goals
39%
Mławianka Mława 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Victoria Sulejówek (draw refunded)
60%
Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Sulejówek at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Mławianka Mława away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.94 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Sulejówek attack 1.47 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.71

Mławianka Mława attack 1.46 + Victoria Sulejówek defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Victoria Sulejówek scores more
46%
level
24%
Mławianka Mława scores more
30%

Victoria Sulejówek at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Victoria Sulejówek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria Sulejówek vs Mławianka Mława

Victoria Sulejówek and Mławianka Mława drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Sulejówek.