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Mławianka Mława vs Victoria Sulejówek — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Mławianka Mława
Mławianka Mława
FT
2 – 0
Victoria Sulejówek
Victoria Sulejówek
6/1/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Stadion MOSiR Mlawa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mławianka Mława50%
×Draw22%
Victoria Sulejówek28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mławianka Mława
2.03
Victoria Sulejówek
1.47

Mławianka Mława creates 38% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Mławianka Mława
2.15
Victoria Sulejówek
1.26

allows per match

Mławianka Mława
1.68
Victoria Sulejówek
1.91

finishing

Mławianka Mława+0.00on par
Victoria Sulejówek+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mławianka Mława ↓

Victoria Sulejówek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mławianka Mława or draw
72%
Mławianka Mława or Victoria Sulejówek
78%
Draw or Victoria Sulejówek
50%

Winning margin

Mławianka Mława wins by 2+
29%
Victoria Sulejówek wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mławianka Mława 1+ goals
87%
Mławianka Mława 2+ goals
60%
Mławianka Mława 3+ goals
33%
Victoria Sulejówek 1+ goals
77%
Victoria Sulejówek 2+ goals
43%
Victoria Sulejówek 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)
64%
Victoria Sulejówek (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mławianka Mława at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Victoria Sulejówek away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mławianka Mława attack 2.15 + Victoria Sulejówek defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.03

Victoria Sulejówek attack 1.26 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mławianka Mława scores more
50%
level
22%
Victoria Sulejówek scores more
28%

Mławianka Mława at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mławianka Mława will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mławianka Mława vs Victoria Sulejówek

Mławianka Mława beat Victoria Sulejówek 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR Mlawa in Mlawa.