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Victoria Sulejówek vs Legionovia Legionowo — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Victoria Sulejówek
Victoria Sulejówek
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
9/16/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Victoria Sulejówek40%
×Draw24%
Legionovia Legionowo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Sulejówek
1.55
Legionovia Legionowo
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

creates per match

Victoria Sulejówek
1.47
Legionovia Legionowo
1.69

allows per match

Victoria Sulejówek
1.24
Legionovia Legionowo
1.63

finishing

Victoria Sulejówek+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Sulejówek ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Victoria Sulejówek or draw
64%
Victoria Sulejówek or Legionovia Legionowo
76%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
60%

Winning margin

Victoria Sulejówek wins by 2+
20%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Victoria Sulejówek 1+ goals
79%
Victoria Sulejówek 2+ goals
46%
Victoria Sulejówek 3+ goals
20%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
77%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
43%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Victoria Sulejówek (draw refunded)
53%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Sulejówek at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Sulejówek attack 1.47 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.55

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Victoria Sulejówek defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Victoria Sulejówek scores more
40%
level
24%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
36%

Victoria Sulejówek at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Victoria Sulejówek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Victoria Sulejówek 1–0 Legionovia Legionowo

Victoria Sulejówek beat Legionovia Legionowo 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Sulejówek.