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Legionovia Legionowo vs Victoria Sulejówek — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Victoria Sulejówek
Victoria Sulejówek
4/13/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo54%
×Draw22%
Victoria Sulejówek24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.96
Victoria Sulejówek
1.26

Legionovia Legionowo creates 56% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
2.00
Victoria Sulejówek
1.26

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.26
Victoria Sulejówek
1.91

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Victoria Sulejówek+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Victoria Sulejówek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
76%
Legionovia Legionowo or Victoria Sulejówek
78%
Draw or Victoria Sulejówek
46%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
31%
Victoria Sulejówek wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
86%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
58%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
31%
Victoria Sulejówek 1+ goals
72%
Victoria Sulejówek 2+ goals
36%
Victoria Sulejówek 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
69%
Victoria Sulejówek (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Victoria Sulejówek away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 2.00 + Victoria Sulejówek defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.96

Victoria Sulejówek attack 1.26 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
54%
level
22%
Victoria Sulejówek scores more
24%

Legionovia Legionowo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Legionovia Legionowo 4–3 Victoria Sulejówek

Legionovia Legionowo beat Victoria Sulejówek 4-3 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.