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Victoria Sulejówek vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Victoria Sulejówek
Victoria Sulejówek
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
8/27/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Victoria Sulejówek44%
×Draw24%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Sulejówek
1.69
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.44

Victoria Sulejówek creates 17% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

creates per match

Victoria Sulejówek
1.47
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.63

allows per match

Victoria Sulejówek
1.24
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.91

finishing

Victoria Sulejówek+0.00on par
Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Sulejówek ↓

Lechia T. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Victoria Sulejówek or draw
67%
Victoria Sulejówek or Lechia T. Mazowiecki
76%
Draw or Lechia T. Mazowiecki
56%

Winning margin

Victoria Sulejówek wins by 2+
23%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Victoria Sulejówek 1+ goals
82%
Victoria Sulejówek 2+ goals
50%
Victoria Sulejówek 3+ goals
24%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
76%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
42%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Victoria Sulejówek (draw refunded)
57%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Sulejówek at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.91 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Sulejówek attack 1.47 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.63 + Victoria Sulejówek defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Victoria Sulejówek scores more
44%
level
24%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more
33%

Victoria Sulejówek at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Victoria Sulejówek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria Sulejówek vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Lechia T. Mazowiecki beat Victoria Sulejówek 3-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Sulejówek.