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Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Victoria Sulejówek — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
FT
1 – 1
Victoria Sulejówek
Victoria Sulejówek
8/31/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Stadion im. Braci Gadajów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki51%
×Draw23%
Victoria Sulejówek26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.84
Victoria Sulejówek
1.26

Lechia T. Mazowiecki creates 46% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 34 away

creates per match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.77
Victoria Sulejówek
1.26

allows per match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.26
Victoria Sulejówek
1.91

finishing

Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par
Victoria Sulejówek+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia T. Mazowiecki ↓

Victoria Sulejówek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lechia T. Mazowiecki or draw
74%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki or Victoria Sulejówek
77%
Draw or Victoria Sulejówek
49%

Winning margin

Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
28%
Victoria Sulejówek wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
84%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
55%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
28%
Victoria Sulejówek 1+ goals
72%
Victoria Sulejówek 2+ goals
36%
Victoria Sulejówek 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
66%
Victoria Sulejówek (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.26 · 104 matches

Victoria Sulejówek away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.77 + Victoria Sulejówek defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.84

Victoria Sulejówek attack 1.26 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more
51%
level
23%
Victoria Sulejówek scores more
26%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lechia T. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Victoria Sulejówek

Lechia T. Mazowiecki and Victoria Sulejówek drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion im. Braci Gadajów in Tomaszów Mazowiecki.