Victoria Sulejówek 1–0 Concordia Elbląg

Victoria Sulejówek

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Concordia Elbląg

5/25/2024

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Victoria Sulejówek58%

×Draw21%

Concordia Elbląg21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Victoria SulejówekExpected goals in this matchConcordia Elbląg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.14

Victoria Sulejówek

2.02

Concordia Elbląg

1.14

Victoria Sulejówek creates 77% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

1.47

creates per match

1.04

1.24

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Victoria Sulejówek

1.47

Concordia Elbląg

1.04

allows per match

Victoria Sulejówek

1.24

Concordia Elbląg

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria Sulejówek+0.00on par

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Sulejówek ↓

Concordia Elbląg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Victoria Sulejówek or draw

79%

Victoria Sulejówek or Concordia Elbląg

79%

Draw or Concordia Elbląg

42%

Winning margin

Victoria Sulejówek wins by 2+

34%

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Victoria Sulejówek 1+ goals

87%

Victoria Sulejówek 2+ goals

60%

Victoria Sulejówek 3+ goals

33%

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals

68%

Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals

32%

Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Victoria Sulejówek (draw refunded)

73%

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Sulejówek at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.24 · 34 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Sulejówek attack 1.47 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.02

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Victoria Sulejówek defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Victoria Sulejówek scores more

58%

level

21%

Concordia Elbląg scores more

21%

Victoria Sulejówek at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Victoria Sulejówek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff