Concordia Elbląg 4–1 Victoria Sulejówek

Concordia Elbląg

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Victoria Sulejówek

11/4/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Concordia Elbląg43%

×Draw24%

Victoria Sulejówek32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Concordia ElblągExpected goals in this matchVictoria Sulejówek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.35

Concordia Elbląg

1.60

Victoria Sulejówek

1.35

Concordia Elbląg creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.29

creates per match

1.26

1.45

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Concordia Elbląg

1.29

Victoria Sulejówek

1.26

allows per match

Concordia Elbląg

1.45

Victoria Sulejówek

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Victoria Sulejówek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Elbląg ↓

Victoria Sulejówek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Concordia Elbląg or draw

68%

Concordia Elbląg or Victoria Sulejówek

76%

Draw or Victoria Sulejówek

57%

Winning margin

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+

22%

Victoria Sulejówek wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals

80%

Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals

47%

Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals

22%

Victoria Sulejówek 1+ goals

74%

Victoria Sulejówek 2+ goals

39%

Victoria Sulejówek 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)

57%

Victoria Sulejówek (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Elbląg at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Victoria Sulejówek away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.91 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.29 + Victoria Sulejówek defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.60

Victoria Sulejówek attack 1.26 + Concordia Elbląg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Concordia Elbląg scores more

43%

level

24%

Victoria Sulejówek scores more

32%

Concordia Elbląg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Concordia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff