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Victoria Seelow vs Tasmania Berlin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Victoria Seelow
Victoria Seelow
FT
0 – 2
Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
9/27/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 6Sparkassenarena Stadt Seelow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Victoria Seelow23%
×Draw20%
Tasmania Berlin56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Seelow
1.38
Tasmania Berlin
2.23

Tasmania Berlin creates 62% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 66 away

creates per match

Victoria Seelow
1.10
Tasmania Berlin
1.70

allows per match

Victoria Seelow
2.76
Tasmania Berlin
1.65

finishing

Victoria Seelow+0.00on par
Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Seelow ↓

Tasmania Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Victoria Seelow or draw
44%
Victoria Seelow or Tasmania Berlin
80%
Draw or Tasmania Berlin
77%

Winning margin

Victoria Seelow wins by 2+
10%
Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Victoria Seelow 1+ goals
75%
Victoria Seelow 2+ goals
40%
Victoria Seelow 3+ goals
16%
Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
89%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
65%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)
29%
Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Seelow at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.76 · 21 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Seelow attack 1.10 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.70 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Victoria Seelow scores more
23%
level
20%
Tasmania Berlin scores more
56%

Tasmania Berlin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tasmania Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Victoria Seelow 0–2 Tasmania Berlin

Tasmania Berlin beat Victoria Seelow 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Sparkassenarena Stadt Seelow in Seelow.